Local Housing Supply Reveals Shortages in Some Price Ranges, Areas
One thing about the housing market is that it never stays the same. For the first time in months, or maybe years, the outlook for spring is overwhelmingly positive and bullish for housing.
A frequent featured guest on major networks, Ron Peltier is CEO of HomeServices of America, the second-largest real estate group in the nation. He commented that “The year 2012 will be a transformational year from correction and continued distress to stabilization and minimal recovery, and slow, steady growth going forward.”
He believes that the U.S. population is growing at approximately 3 million households a year, yet we are currently forming half that number. This means pent- up demand for home ownership as the costs to own drop below the cost to rent in many areas.
“Home prices have corrected to 2002 levels,” said Peltier. “Affordability for home buying is now at an all-time high. Today’s home values are realistic and when looking at the low interest rates and the overall economics of ownership, the monthly cost to own a home today is the same as it was in 1981.”
In addition to unprecedented affordability, other good news is making buying a home easier:
• FHA government-guaranteed loans were restored to higher temporary borrowing limits, already resulting in more sales volume in high-cost areas such as Southern California
• National unemployment rates dropped to 8.4%
• Banks approved more short sales and foreclosure write-offs, allowing stagnant inventory to move through the pipeline
• Mortgage interest rates reached new record lows
But wait – aren’t prices supposed to fall further? Don’t count on it in Southern California.
According to the California Association of REALTORS®, the median price of an existing, single-family detached home rose 1.8% to $285,920 in December 2011, up from $280,960 in November. Sales volume
has risen for three months in a row to the highest level in a year. Year-over-year, sales are up for the sixth year in a row.
Dataquick found that housing sales surged in December in Southern California, with activity strongest in homes priced under $300,000 and sold to a record share of “absentee” buyers. Counting new and resale single-family and condo sales, volume was up 14.0% over November, slightly more than the historical 13.2% increase between November and December.
By price segment, luxury homes lost the spotlight to entry-level homes, which leapt 5.9% in transaction volume, bringing the median price down to $270,000 from $275,000 in November. Distressed homes accounted for 52.5% of Southland resales.
Non-occupying home buyers – investors and second-home buyers – purchased a record 26.4% of homes sold in December. Cash buyers purchased one-third of all homes, and paid a median price of $202,500.
Southland home buyers committed to the lowest monthly mortgage payment since January 1988, an affordable $1,026, down from $1,049 in November and $1,205 in December 2010. Adjusted for inflation, payments are 55.8% lower than they were in 1989 and 63.8% lower than they were at the most recent peak, July 2007.
Clearly, these data are offering buy- now signals, as well as sell-now signals, particularly for underwater home owners. But it’s not enough to know whether home prices are up and down, it’s also important to know why the data are changing, and whether that data is relevant to your situation and your goals.
That’s where the importance of local data from your Prudential California Realty real estate professionals comes in. You may be surprised to learn that prices aren’t falling in your neighborhood, or in your price range. It all depends on supply.
In California, and especially Southern California, there is such demand for affordable traditional homes that there are real shortages developing in many areas. Investors, cash buyers, and first-time home buyers are all seeking affordable traditional homes.
For example, detached homes under $300K are selling as fast as they can close.
Orange County – detached homes – 3.1-month supply San Diego County – 2.4-month supply San Fernando Valley – 2.2-month supply
San Gabriel Valley – 1.9-month supply
Santa Barbara County – 2.2-month supply Santa Maria and the Santa Ynez Valley – 2.2-month supply Southwest Riverside – 3.3-month supply Ventura County – 2.2-month supply Westside Los Angeles – 3.4-month supply
And there are shortages in other price ranges besides entry level. Due to the restoration of higher loan limits in high-priced areas, Westside Los Angeles has only a 2.8-month supply of homes priced $600K to $699,999. Santa Barbara has only a 2.1-month supply of homes priced $500K to $599,999. The San Gabriel Valley has only 2.8 months’ supply of homes between $700K and $799,999.
Attached homes are also selling rapidly. The San Fernando Valley has only a month’s supply of condos and townhomes priced $700K and above. Southwest Riverside has less than two months’ supply of condos and townhomes – at any price.
To obtain the most recent sales data for your area, contact Conrad Metz of Metz Properties: Prudential California Realty.
Advice for buyers: If you’ve been on the fence, 2012 is the year to take action.
Advice for sellers: In most markets and price ranges you can put your home on the market with confidence.
Conrad Metz
Conradmetz@Gmail.com
NewportBeachMetzProperties.com
Conrad Metz
Metz Properties: Prudential California Realty
1400 Newport Center Dr. Ste. 200
Newport Beach, CA 92657
NewportBeachMetzProperties.com
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